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为了对技术发展路径中关键技术的选择更为准确,文章综合专利直接被引和间接被引的信息设计了专利引证强度指标,并将该指标和专利引用网络思想相结合提出了关键技术发展路径算法。以电动汽车为例进行方法验证,并对其中最大的技术子图进行了聚类分析、4个发展阶段的解读和技术创新点的判断。结果显示该方法不仅有助于简化技术发展的复杂结构,勾勒出由关键技术组成的发展路径,同时对技术创新点预测也提供了一个新思路。
In order to make the choice of key technologies in the path of technological development more accurate, this paper designs the index of strength of patent citation based on the information of both direct and indirect citation, and presents the key technology development path by combining the index with the patent citation network thought algorithm. Taking the electric vehicle as an example, the method is verified and the cluster analysis of the largest technology subgraph is carried out. The four stages of development are interpreted and the point of technological innovation is judged. The results show that this method not only helps to simplify the complicated structure of technological development, but also provides a path of development that is composed of key technologies. It also provides a new idea for the prediction of technological innovation.