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公共债务能否促进经济增长在理论上仍然存在较大分歧,实证研究主要聚焦在债务阈值的存在性、政府债务规模的测度以及模型的内生性问题。许多精炼的模型认为债务与经济增长的关系是不确定的,这也表明公共债务与经济增长的关系更多是取决于经济周期和结构因素,试图单一地估计一个债务系数适用所有国家和所有时期是不可能的。这些研究方法与结论对于我国公共债务与经济增长等问题的研究有重要的借鉴意义。
Whether the public debt can promote economic growth still has big differences in theory. Empirical research mainly focuses on the existence of debt threshold, the measure of government debt scale and the endogeneity of the model. Many refined models hold that the relationship between debt and economic growth is uncertain. It also shows that the relationship between public debt and economic growth depends more on the economic cycle and structural factors, and attempts to estimate a single debt coefficient for all countries and all periods It is impossible. These research methods and conclusions have important referential significance for the study of China’s public debt and economic growth.