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本文从学习视角分析新技术商业化投资过程中面临的三种不同类型不确定性及其解决方式,阐述各类不确定性及分布影响新技术商业化投资决策背后的内在机制与路径。在此基础上运用实物期权方法构建新技术商业化投资评估与决策模型并导出最优投资规则,进而利用数值模拟进行比较静态分析,详细讨论各种参数变化对新技术商业化投资价值与投资门槛的影响,阐述结果的经济与管理涵义。
This article analyzes three different types of uncertainties and their solutions in the commercialization of new technologies from the perspective of learning, and elaborates the underlying mechanisms and paths behind the various uncertainties and their impact on the commercialization of new technologies. On this basis, the real option method is used to build a new technology commercialization investment evaluation and decision model and to derive the optimal investment rules, and then the comparative static analysis is conducted by using numerical simulation. The commercialization investment value and investment threshold of new technologies are discussed in detail. The impact of economic and management implications of the results.