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以现售市场为标杆,从易逝品零售商的角度研究预售的市场和风险。在标杆分析现售市场的基础上,分析了现售和预售市场上的消费者行为,考察两个市场的需求,表明消费者的预购风险加大了预售市场的不确定性,但却是无害的。建立了优化预售价格的利润模型,并探讨了调研信息不准确导致决策失误所带来的市场风险。数值分析显示,现售和预售各有优劣,零售商设法减小消费者预购商品的风险成本既有益于提高预售价格,也有利于提高销售量。进一步的风险研究发现,现售经营模式严重依赖于市场预测的准确性,而预售模式不受制于市场预测和消费者调研,能有效规避各类不确定风险。
Based on the existing market, the pre-sale market and risk are studied from the perspective of perishable retailers. On the basis of benchmark analysis of the existing market, the paper analyzes the consumer behavior in the existing and pre-sale markets, examines the demand of the two markets, shows that the pre-purchase risk of consumers increases the uncertainty of the presale market, It is harmless. Establishes the profit model of optimizing the presale price, and discusses the market risk brought by the inaccuracy of the research information resulting in the decision mistakes. Numerical analysis shows that the sales and pre-sales have their own advantages and disadvantages. Retailers trying to reduce the risk cost of pre-ordered goods not only benefit the sale price but also increase the sales volume. Further risk studies found that the existing sales model relies heavily on the accuracy of the market forecast, while the presale model is not subject to market forecasts and consumer research, which can effectively avoid all kinds of uncertain risks.