近一两年内,由于原材料、劳动力成本上升,向中国转移工厂的热潮减退,中国不再是全球的通缩因素。当中国产品在价值链的高端占据一定位置,对高附加值的产品进行重新定价时,中国将再次成为全球的通缩因素我认为对全球经济而言,中国目前不是一个通缩性因素。由于经济周期和政治性原因,中国在一两年内将是一个通胀因素。眼下对市场来说,中国将作为通胀因素冲击全球经济。以大型零售商为主的那些通缩赢家,在未来一两年内的收益将会缩水。当中国不再是阻止通胀的因素时,全球各主要央行将不得不采取紧缩措施来减缓经济发展势头。原材料成本不断上涨 In the past year or two, China has ceased to be the deflationary factor in the world because of the rising raw material and labor costs and the sluggish transfer of factories to China. When Chinese products occupy a certain position at the high end of the value chain, China will once again become the global deflationary factor when it comes to repricing high value-added products. I think that China is not a deflationary factor for the global economy at present. Due to the economic cycle and political reasons, China will be an inflationary factor in a year or two. Right now for the market, China will impact the global economy as an inflation factor. Those deflation winners, mostly big retailers, will see less revenue in the next year or two. When China is no longer a factor preventing inflation, the world's major central banks will have to take austerity measures to ease the momentum of economic development. Raw material costs continue to rise