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这篇论文旨在提供一个非技术层面的关于“大分流”和“大趋同”的解释,纵观各类文献对于该问题的解释,在此笔者提供另一种不同的看法。西方国家通过打破旧体系退出马尔萨斯陷阱,伴随而来的是收入不平等以及预期寿命降低,但是使得以消费为代价的有利于储蓄和投资的收入再分配成为可能。当同样的模式运用在一些发展中国家如殖民地撒哈拉以南非洲地区、拉丁美洲和苏联导致的结果是传统体制的毁灭,收入不平等问题的加剧以及处在更加糟糕的往前追赶的起跑点上。其他一些东亚、南亚、中东、北非地区的发展中国家受殖民政策的影响较小,所以成功地在20世纪末保持了旧体制,从而使他们自己处在现代经济发展的较好的起跑线上。缓慢的技术进步最终使他们找到了一个马尔萨斯陷阱的出口——增加收入使得在没有大幅增加收入不平等或者减少预期寿命的情况下,投资占GDP份额可以升高。
The purpose of this paper is to provide a non-technical explanation of the “Dadu flow” and “Datong convergence.” This article provides a different perspective on the explanation of various issues in this literature. Western countries have pulled out of the Malthusian trap by breaking with the old system, with attendant inequalities in incomes and diminished life expectancy, but have made it possible to reallocate income that benefits saving and investment at the expense of consumption. When the same model was applied in some developing countries, such as the colonial sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Soviet Union resulted in the destruction of the traditional institutions, the aggravation of income inequality and the start of a worse forward catching-up . Some other developing countries in East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa have been less affected by the colonial policies. They succeeded in maintaining the old system at the end of the 20th century, thereby placing themselves in a better starting point for the development of modern economy. Slow technological advances eventually led them to find a Malthusian trap exit - increasing revenues makes it possible to increase their share of GDP in investment without major increases in income inequality or reduced life expectancy.