从分析影响舰空导弹系统对反舰导弹有效拦截时间的主要因素入手,建立了有无预警机信息支援两种情况下,舰空导弹系统对反舰导弹有效拦截时间和最大拦截次数计算模型.在此基础上,建立了两种情况下反舰导弹对舰空导弹的突防概率计算模型与饱和攻击数确定模型.通过设定具体作战背景及相关参数,运用模型对反舰导弹的饱和攻击数进行了仿真计算,结果说明该模型具有一定的理论参考价值. Starting from the analysis of the main factors influencing the effective interception time of anti-ship missiles by the ship-to-sea missile system, this paper established the effective intercept time and the maximum interception count model of the anti-ship missiles in both cases with or without AWACS information support. Based on these two models, the calculation model of penetration probability and the number of saturated attack numbers of anti-ship missiles on the ship-to-air missile are established. By setting the specific operational background and related parameters, the number of saturated attacks The simulation results show that the model has a certain theoretical reference value.