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技术预警的概念是从军事上借用过来的。技术预警是对具有重大意义的技术和相关因素的突破进行预测,并及时向决策者报警的过程。那么技术预警与一般预测的关系是怎样的? 我们认为,技术预警是一般预测工作的重要组成部分,它具有预测的共性,例如为决策服务、作未来事态的描述与判断等等。但是,技术预警毕竟还是有许多特殊性,本文试图对其特殊性作初步的探讨。一、技术预警是对“危机”的预测预警的对象是一些重要的、突变性的事态,而预测的范围则更为广泛。例如,天气预报,属于预测,而台风警报则属于预警。
The concept of technical warning is borrowed from the military. Technical early warning is the process of predicting breakthroughs in technology and related factors of great significance and alerting decision makers in a timely manner. So what is the relationship between technical warning and general prediction? We think that technical warning is an important part of the general prediction work. It has common characteristics of prediction, such as decision service, description and judgment of future events and so on. However, after all, there are still many specialties in technical early warning. This article attempts to make a tentative discussion on its particularity. First, the technical warning is the target of the “crisis” forecast Early warning is a number of important and mutating events, and the prediction is more extensive. For example, the weather forecast belongs to the forecast, and the typhoon alert belongs to the early warning.