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统计了2条山区公路的交通事故数据与平面线形数据,采用角度变化率作为平面线形的表征参数,对样本路段区间内的事故率与角度变化率进行回归分析,分别计算了当前样本路段向前0.25、0.50、0.75、1.00、1.50km等多个计算区间上的平均角度变化率。对角度变化率进行二次处理,利用最小二乘法拟合了事故率与角度变化率之间的曲线关系。分析结果表明:路段1、2区间内的事故率与角度变化率的拟合判定系数较低,分别为0.414 2和0.120 8;在当前样本路段向前0.50km的计算区间上,事故率与平均角度变化率的正二次抛物线关系均最明显,拟合判定系数分别为0.966 1和0.790 8;当平均角度变化率大约在0.002 0(°).km-1时,事故率最低。
The traffic accident data and the plane linear data of two mountainous roads are counted. The angle change rate is used as the character of the plane line shape, and the accident rate and angle change rate in the sample section are analyzed by regression analysis. 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.00, 1.50 km and other calculation of the average angle of change rate. The rate of change of angle is processed twice and the curve relationship between accident rate and rate of change of angle is fitted by using least square method. The analysis results show that the fitting judgment coefficients of the accident rate and the rate of change of angle within the section 1 and section 2 are relatively low, respectively 0.414 2 and 0.120 8; in the calculation interval of 0.50 km ahead of the current sample section, the accident rate and the average The positive quadratic parabola relationship of the rate of change of angle is the most obvious, and the coefficient of fitting judgment is 0.966 1 and 0.790 8 respectively. When the average angle change rate is about 0.002 0 (°) .km -1, the accident rate is the lowest.