本文首先介绍反事实思维及其表达(反事实条件句)的有关研究和争论,然后对从大学生的半结构化访谈中整理出的114个反事实条件句,从产出方式(引导与否)、前提性质(加法、减法、替换)、结论性质(上行、下行、持正)和归因偏向(外部、内部)4个维度进行考察,探讨了前提与结论、归因与前提等不同维度之间的关系。文章发现:在自然话语中,学生们主动进行反事实假设的情况较少,也比较困难;并且,在反事实推理的表达中,常常伴有表达低可能性的词语,来谨慎地表达自己对因果关系的不确定性。通过对前提性质与结论性质之相关性的考察,发现大学生反事实思维与表达的乐观主义倾向;通过归因偏向与前提性质之相关性的考察,发现学生们更容易对不作为(没有做某事)进行反事实思维。最后,文章从认识论和方法论角度,对反事实思维及其表达的效用和局限进行了讨论。 This article first introduces the counterfactual thinking and its expression (counterfactual conditions) of the relevant research and debate, and then from the semi-structured interviews of college students sorted out 114 counterfactual conditional sentences, from the output (guidance or not) , The nature of the premise (addition, subtraction, substitution), the conclusion of the nature (up, down, positive) and attribution bias (external, internal) to examine the four dimensions of the premise and conclusion, attribution and premise Relationship between. The article finds that in the natural discourse, students are less likely to take the initiative to counter counterfactual assumptions, and it is also more difficult. And in the expression of counterfactual reasoning, words with low possibility are often associated with expressing cautiously Uncertainty of causation. By examining the correlation between the nature of the premise and the nature of the conclusion, we find that college students are optimistic about the anti-factual thinking and expression. Through the correlation between the attribution bias and the nature of the premise, we find that students are more likely to inaction ( Things) counter-factual thinking. Finally, from the perspective of epistemology and methodology, the article discusses the counterfactual thinking and its effectiveness and limitations.