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滑坡是我国主要的地质灾害类型之一,滑坡的发生受多种因素影响,如降雨、所在位置地形地貌,高程、坡度、植被覆盖及人工影响等,其中,我国大多数滑坡又以降雨为主要诱发因素,在这类降雨型滑坡研究中,降雨对滑坡产生的定量作用一直是学术界关注的热点和难点。本文根据梧州市万秀区降雨量与滑坡的数据,采用数理统计方法,关联滑坡的时空分布与降雨过程的统计关系,建立logistic回归模型进行分析,从而确定滑坡降雨临界值及滑坡发生概率。
Landslide is one of the major types of geological disasters in our country. The occurrence of landslides is affected by many factors, such as rainfall, location topography, elevation, slope, vegetation cover and artificial influence. Among them, most of the landslides in our country are mainly rainfall In this kind of rainfall-type landslide research, the quantitative effect of rainfall on landslides has been a hot and difficult topic in academia. Based on the data of rainfall and landslide in Wanxiu District of Wuzhou City, the statistical relationship between the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide and the rainfall process is analyzed. The logistic regression model is established for the analysis and the critical value of landslide rainfall and the probability of landslide occurrence are determined.