A tentative study for the prediction of the CME related geomagnetic storm intensity and its transit

来源 :Science in China(Series E:Technological Sciences) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:ggb1977
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Using 80 CME-ICME events during 1997.1―2002.9, based on the eruptive source locations of CMEs and solar magnetic field observation at the photosphere, a current sheet magnetic coordinate (CMC) system is established in order to study the propagation of CME and its geoeffectiveness. In context of this coordinate system, the effect of the eruptive source location and the form of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) at the eruptive time of CME on the geomagnetic storm intensity caused by CME and the CME’s transit time at the Earth is investigated in detail. Our preliminary conclusions are: 1) The geomagnetic disturbances caused by CMEs tend to have the so-called “same side-opposite side effect”, i.e. CMEs erupt from the same side of the HCS as the earth would be more likely to arrive at the earth and the geomagnetic disturbances associated with them tend to be of larger magnitude, while CMEs erupting from the opposite side would arrive at the earth with less probability and the corresponding geomagnetic disturbance magnitudes would be relatively weaker. 2) The angular separation between the earth and the HCS affect the corresponding disturbance intensity. That is, when our earth is located near the HCS, adverse space weather events occur most probably. 3) The erupting location of the CME and its nearby form of HCS will also affect its arrival time at the earth. According to these conclusions, in this context of CMC coordinate we arrive at new prediction method for estimating the geomagnetic storm intensity (Dstmin) caused by CMEs and their transit times. The application of the empirical model for 80 CME-ICME events shows that the relative error of Dst is within 30% for 59% events with Dstmin≤?50 nT, while the averaged absolute error of transit time is lower than 10 h for all events. Using 80 CME-ICME events during 1997.1-2002.9, based on the eruptive source locations of CMEs and solar magnetic field observation at the photosphere, a current sheet magnetic coordinate (CMC) system is established in order to study the propagation of CME and its geoeffectiveness . In the context of this coordinate system, the effect of the eruptive source location and the form of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) at the eruptive time of CME on the geomagnetic storm intensity caused by CME and the CME’s transit time at the Earth is investigated in detail. Our first conclusions are: 1) The geomagnetic disturbances caused by CMEs tend to have the so-called “same side-opposite side effect”, ie CMEs erupt from the same side of the HCS as the earth would be more likely to arrive at the earth and the geomagnetic disturbances associated with them tend to be of larger magnitude, while CMEs erupting from the opposite side would arrive at the earth with less probability and the corresp 2) The angular separation between the earth and the HCS affect the corresponding disturbance intensity. That is, when our earth is located near the HCS, adverse space weather events occur most probably. 3) The erupting location of the CME and its nearby form of HCS will also affect its arrival time at the earth. According to these conclusions, in this context of CMCS we arrive at new prediction method for estimating the geomagnetic storm intensity (Dstmin) caused by CMEs and Their transit times. The application of the empirical model for 80 CME-ICME events shows that the relative error of Dst is within 30% for 59% events with Dstmin≤? 50 nT, while the averaged absolute error of transit time is lower than 10 h for all events.
其他文献
我院应用泰胃美预防脑出血并发上消化道出血 ,取得了满意的预防效果 ,现报告如下。1 病例与方法1.1病例选择  6 2例患者均符合以下 2项重度脑出血的诊断标准 :①临床表现有
数学课堂教学是对小学生进行素质教育的主要渠道。素质教育的重要特点是要使学生主动地学习。因此,在课堂教学中教师要努力唤起学生的主体意识,发挥学生的主动精神,积极主动
一、传统婚姻中理想的配偶条件 传统中国婚姻的目的是“传宗接代”,择偶标准是为这种目的服务的。在这种婚姻中,感情因素是次要的,那种完全出于当事者性魅力的相互吸引、一
体育大课间活动是近几年在传统课间操基础上蓬勃发展起来的一种新的学校体育活动组织形式,与传统课间操相比,体育大课间活动具有时间长、活动内容丰富、形式灵活、练习强度大
(2015-5-13)监测数据显示,截止5月11日,全国各地小麦价格整体平稳。河北石家庄地区小麦进厂价为2 500元/t;山东济南地区小麦进厂价为2 480元/t;河南郑州地区小麦进厂价为2 46
我国加入WTO,企业思想政治工作研究面临着机遇与挑战。本文以韶钢为例就我国加入WTO后企业思想政治工作研究如何与时俱进的问题提出几点思考。一、政研工作的必然要求——与时
目前,教育形势十分喜人,从中央到地方,为动员贯彻落实《中国教育改革和发展纲要》都先后召开了教育工作会议。如此大好形势,这是建国以来所没有的。面对大好形势,我们一定要
《颐和园》是一篇散文 ,全文通过对长廊、佛香阁、昆明湖、十七孔桥这几处景点的细致描绘 ,体现了颐和园的壮美 ,赞美了祖国园林艺术的辉煌成就和古代劳动人民的高度智慧。如
布鲁氏杆菌病(以下简称布病)在世界许多牧业区广为流行,对从事牧业的人员威胁较大。世界上对布病的研究已有近百年的历史。水解素治疗慢性期布病是一个比较简便有效的方法。
我们自1987年10月至1988年8月连续收治6例粪检确诊微小膜壳绦虫病患者。其中男性4例,女性2例;成人1例,儿童5例;年龄5~31岁。其中4例有腹痛、腹胀、腹泻等症状;1例恶心,食欲亢