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目的:应用Markov模型对山东省2005~2009年的HFRS疫情进行预测,为全省的HFRS防治工作提供科学依据。方法:将山东省1973~2004年的HFRS发病率划分为4个状态,应用Markov模型对其今后5年的发病趋势进行预测。结果:山东省今后5年内HFRS发病率均低于5/10万。结论:山东省HFRS会保持低流行状态,但流行形势仍不乐观。
OBJECTIVE: To predict the epidemic situation of HFRS in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2009 by Markov model, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFRS in Shandong Province. Methods: The incidence of HFRS in Shandong Province from 1973 to 2004 was divided into four states. The Markov model was used to predict the incidence of HFRS in the next five years. Results: The incidence of HFRS in Shandong Province in 5 years was less than 5 / 100,000. Conclusion: Shandong Province HFRS will maintain a low prevalence, but the prevailing situation is still not optimistic.