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我们认为普通投资者买入权证的唯一理由应该是看好宝钢的股价,我们强烈不建议投资者仅因为权证的投机性而介入。根据我们对宝钢2006年的盈利预测,宝钢明年仍有可能保持增长,同时我们认为大盘后市转暖的机会较大。以此为基础,我们看好宝钢股份,同时认为可以适当介入宝钢权证。宝钢权证上市之初可能是介入的较好时机。理由在于权证的开盘价受计算模型限制可能较低,并不能完全反应市场对宝钢的股价预期。如果我们对宝钢复牌后价格的判断正确,这时的股价与行权价接近,买入可获得较高的杠杆比例,资金利用效率最高。但是权证刚上市也是其投机性最强的时候,加上我们对流动性的担忧,此时的权证价格可能反应过度,投资者应该结合自己对股价的判断控制风险。
We think the only reason ordinary investors buy warrants should be bullish on Baosteel’s share price. We strongly discourage investors from intervening solely because of the speculative nature of warrants. According to our 2006 earnings forecast for Baosteel, Baosteel is still likely to maintain its growth next year, and we think there is a bigger chance of a broader market recovery in the broader market. Based on this, we are optimistic about Baosteel’s shares, and we think Baosteel warrants can be properly intervened. Baosteel warrants listed may be involved at the beginning of a better time. The reason is that the opening price of warrants may be lower due to the calculation model and can not fully reflect the market price expectation of Baosteel. If we judge the price of Baosteel after the resumption of trading is correct, then the stock price and the exercise price close to buy a higher leverage ratio, the highest capital efficiency. But warrants just listed is also the most speculative time, coupled with our liquidity concerns, warrants the price may be overreacted at this time, investors should be combined with their own stock price control risk control.