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应用数理统计方法,于1980年对高州水稻三化螟发生期进行测试,准确率达到80—90%,但由于数理统计的计算较为复杂,手算或电子计算器在许多方面难以处理。为了使测报技术现代化,我们在1984—1985年用数理统计的数学模式(时间序列模式)和方法,以微型电子计算机(简称微机)处理历史资料编程回代验测,得初步结果。1987年1月20日以高州县水稻三化螟资料,对该年的发生期进行预测(长期),以验证预报效果。
Applying the method of mathematical statistics to test the occurrence period of the rice stem borer, Chrysalis, in Gaozhou in 1980, the accuracy rate reaches 80-90%. However, due to the complicated calculation of mathematical statistics, the calculator or electronic calculator is difficult to handle in many aspects. In order to modernize the forecasting technology, we used mathematical statistics mathematical model (time series model) and method from 1984 to 1985, and we got the preliminary results by using the microcomputer (referred to as microcomputer) January 20, 1987 in Gaozhou rice borer information on the occurrence of the year forecast (long-term) to verify the forecast results.