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目的构建手足口病周发病例数的季节性自回归移动平均模型,并将其应用于预测该地区手足口病疫情趋势,为该地区制定防治策略提供依据。方法采用时间序列分析方法,以郑州市二七区2008-2013年每周手足口病的发病资料进行分析、建立模型,以此模型预测2014年该地区手足口病的发病情况,并与实际观察值相比较。结果郑州市二七区手足口病周发病例SARIMA(1,1,0)(0,1,0)52模型的拟合度(R2)为0.807;精度(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)为11.573。结论应用时间序列分析方法建立的SARIMA模型能较好的拟合手足口病的流行,并进行预测。
Objective To construct a seasonal autoregressive moving average model of hand-foot-mouth disease and to apply it to forecast the epidemic trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in this region and provide evidence for the prevention and control strategy in this region. Methods The time series analysis method was used to analyze the incidence of HFMD in 2008 and 2013 in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City. The model was established to predict the incidence of HFMD in 2014 in this area. Compared with the actual observation Value comparison. Results The results showed that the R2 (R2) of SARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,0) 52 in the 27 cases of HFMD in Erqi district of Zhengzhou City was 0.807; the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was 11.573 . Conclusion The SARIMA model established by time series analysis method can well fit the epidemic of HFMD and predict it.