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以调试校正较高精度的ORYZA2000模型参数及高温敏感性模拟验证为目的,为模型适应性和本地化提供依据,利用江苏省9个试验点5个水稻(Oryza sativa)品种的田间观测数据及当地逐日气象数据,采用ORYZA2000最新版本(V2.13)水稻生长模型,首先挑选出5个试验点3个品种的观测数据进行模型参数适应性调试校正,确定了水稻发育生长阶段的各项参数,然后用该参数对独立样本的4个试验点2个水稻品种地上部分各器官生物量、叶面积指数动态变化过程及最终产量进行了动态模拟。通过t检验和质量评价指标对模拟结果进行了显著性检验。利用通过检验的模型及其参数在假设环境温度不同时间段的持续升高条件下,开展了高温对水稻生物量及产量影响的模拟研究,模拟结果的影响幅度与实际高温处理结果的影响幅度进行了比较。结果表明:1)经过调试校正获得较高精度的水稻发育阶段各参数,较准确地模拟了水稻生物量和叶面积指数的动态累积过程,模拟值与观测值基本一致,说明校正后参数的合理性和有效性;2)调整参数后高温敏感性模拟结果表明,孕穗期到开花期温度连续3天、5天、7天升高到35℃时,总生物量、穗生物量和总产量与对照(CK)相比分别下降了12%–25%;不同时间段连续升高到38℃时下降18%–31%;不同时间段升高到41℃时,各生物量与对照相比分别下降了20%–38%。模型模拟值与控制试验室的观测数据的下降幅度基本一致,表明经过参数校正的ORYZA2000可以应用于水稻对气温升高响应的预测。
In order to adjust and calibrate ORYZA2000 model parameters with high accuracy and high-temperature sensitivity simulation verification, this study provided the basis for adaptability and localization of the model. Based on the field observation data of 5 Oryza sativa cultivars at 9 experimental sites in Jiangsu Province and the local Daily meteorological data, using the latest version of ORYZA2000 (V2.13) rice growth model, first of all five test points were selected three kinds of observations of model parameters adaptive debugging to determine the parameters of rice growth and development stage, and then Using this parameter, dynamic changes of biomass, leaf area index and final yield of aboveground parts of two rice cultivars at four test points in four independent samples were simulated. The t test and the quality evaluation index were used to test the simulation results. Using the tested model and its parameters to simulate the effects of high temperature on biomass and yield of rice under the assumption of constant increase of ambient temperature for different time periods, the influence range of simulated results and actual high temperature treatment results A The results showed that: 1) The parameters of rice growth stage with high accuracy were obtained through debugging and calibration, and the dynamic accumulation process of rice biomass and leaf area index was accurately simulated. The simulated and observed values were basically the same, indicating that the corrected parameters were reasonable Sexual and effectiveness.2) The results of hyperthermia sensitivity after adjusting the parameters showed that the total biomass, ear biomass and total yield were significantly increased with the increase of booting stage and flowering temperature for 3 days, 5 days and 7 days to 35 ℃ (CK) decreased by 12% -25% respectively; when the time was continuously increased to 38 ℃, it decreased by 18% -31%; when the time was increased to 41 ℃, Decreased by 20% -38%. The simulated model values and control laboratory observations are basically the same, indicating that ORYZA2000 with parameter calibration can be applied to the prediction of rice response to temperature increase.