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贸易联系持续期对于一国出口贸易的平稳发展具有重要的意义。本文基于1996~2013年中国文化贸易HS6位码数据,通过构建出口品质、出口价格以及贸易联系持续期指标,采用多种回归模型实证分析发现以下结论。文化产品出口品质有助于文化贸易联系持续期的稳定,而出口价格则抑制了贸易联系持续期,尤其在核心文化产品种类以及较短的贸易联系持续期样本上。本文一个有趣的发现是,对于出口品质较高或贸易联系持续期较为稳定的文化产品样本,出口价格的负向抑制效应得到了极大的缓解,甚至产生正向促进效应。多种稳健性回归结果也均验证了上述结论。本文研究成果不仅为企业出口“价格-品质”争论提供了更为可靠的经验证据,同时对文化贸易联系持续期的稳定以及国际竞争力的提升具有一定的政策启示意义。
The duration of trade links is of great significance to the smooth development of a country’s export trade. Based on the data of HS6 digit code of China’s cultural trade from 1996 to 2013, this paper constructs the export quality, export price and the duration of the trade linkages. Empirical analysis using multiple regression models shows the following conclusions. The export quality of cultural products helped to stabilize the duration of cultural trade links, while export prices dampened the duration of trade linkages, especially with regard to core cultural product categories and shorter duration of trade links. An interesting finding of this paper is that for the samples of cultural products with higher export quality or more stable trade links, the negative inhibitory effect of export prices has been greatly alleviated and even positive promotion effects have been achieved. A variety of robust regression results also verify the above conclusion. The results of this paper not only provide more reliable empirical evidence for the export-price-quality dispute, but also provide some policy implications for the stability of the duration of cultural trade links and the enhancement of international competitiveness.