本文探讨了Logistic函数与模型作为预测小额贷款违约概率的理论基础,并说明构建模型解释变量的统计方法及分析方法,并采用真实小额贷款公司借款公司的财务数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,Logistic模型在小额贷款的信用风险度量中具有较好的预测效果,这一模型的适用性较好。 This paper explores the Logistic function and model as the theoretical basis for predicting the probability of default of microcredit, as well as the statistical methods and analytical methods for constructing model explanatory variables. The empirical analysis is conducted based on the financial data of real microcredit companies. The results show that Logistic model has a good predictive effect in the credit risk measurement of microloans, and the model is more suitable.