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按Comstock和Robinson提出的NCDⅡ设计设置。多元回归式的自变量选用四元组合的双亲五龄经过(x_1)、虫蛹统一生命率(x_2)、全茧量(x_3)、茧层量(x_4)、茧层率(x_5)、茧丝长(x_6)、解舒率(x_7)计7个性状的平均值(MP)。以MP对自身的四元杂种的全茧量,茧层量、茧层率、茧丝长、解舒率来求多元回归方程。预测效果以最大绝对误差、平均误差、平均误差百分率、预测值与实测值的相关系数来评估,并探讨了预测方法上的若干问題及遗传力与预测效果之间的关系。结果:全茧量、茧层量、茧层率三项预测效果好,平均误差百分率均在5%以下;茧丝长、解舒卑预测效果不理想,平均误差在5%以上。遗传力和预测效果有密切联系,遗传力高,预测准确;遗传力低,预测难以把握。相关系数不能作为评价预测效果好坏的一个指标。
According to Comstock and Robinson proposed NCD Ⅱ design settings. The multivariate logistic regression model used quadruple combinations of the parents’ fifth instar larvae (x_1), the pupae’s unified life rate (x_2), the total cocoon amount (x_3), the cocoon shell amount (x_4), the cocoon shell rate Silk length (x_6), unwinding rate (x_7), the average of seven traits (MP). In order to find the multivariate regression equation of the total cocoon amount, the cocoon shell amount, the cocoon shell rate, the cocoon silk length and the unwinding rate of the quaternary hybrid of MP by itself, The prediction effect is evaluated by the correlation coefficient between the maximum absolute error, the average error, the average percentage of error, the predicted value and the measured value, and discusses the relationship between the forecasting method and the heritability and the forecasting effect. Results: The predicted results of total cocoon amount, cocoon shell amount and cocoon shell rate were good, and the average error percentages were all below 5%. The predicted results of cocoon length and solution to abyss were not satisfactory, and the average error was above 5%. Heritability and predictive effect are closely related, high heritability, accurate prediction; heritability is low, the prediction is difficult to grasp. The correlation coefficient can not be used as an indicator to evaluate the prediction effect.