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本项研究在收集,整理二十多年来积累的大量棉红铃虫观察数据的基础上,通过对影响棉红铃虫种群动态的生态分析,选出一批待选因子,以PC—1500袖珍计算机为工具,采用逐步回归分析方法进行因子筛选并应用模糊聚类和时间序列分析方法系统聚类和周期筛选,寻求棉红铃虫种群变动规律。以多因子相关和时间序列作为红铃虫数值预报的数学模型,应用逐步回归,时间序列和模糊聚类等三种数学分析方法组建棉红铃虫发生期和发生量的中长期数值预报模式。逐步回归预报式由逐步筛选出的影响棉红铃虫种群变化的关键因子组成;
Based on the observation and data collection of a large number of Helicoverpa armigera collected over the past 20 years, this study selected a group of candidate factors by using the ecological analysis of the population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera, Pocket computer as a tool, using stepwise regression analysis method for factor selection and application of fuzzy clustering and time series analysis method of system clustering and periodic screening, to find the cotton bollworm population dynamics. Using multifactorial correlation and time series as mathematical models for numerical prediction of Bollworm, a numerical model was established for mid and long term prediction of occurrence and occurrence of Bollworms, using three mathematical methods: stepwise regression, time series and fuzzy clustering. The stepwise regression prediction is composed of the key factors influencing the population dynamics of the pink bollworm, which are gradually selected.