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根据大气环流模型(GCMs)输出的未来气候变化情景,结合历史资料的诊断分析,应用建立的流域水文模型及水资源利用综合评价模型,研究了气候变化对京津唐地区水资源数量和时空变化的影响。在地区未来经济发展及部门用水量预测的基础上,分析了气候变化对供水、需水和部门缺水的影响以及经济损失。
Based on the future climate change scenarios output by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCMs), combined with the diagnostic analysis of historical data and the established hydrological model and comprehensive evaluation model of water resources utilization, this paper studies the effects of climate change on the quantity and spatio-temporal variations of water resources in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan areas Impact. Based on the forecast of regional economic development and sectoral water consumption, the paper analyzes the impacts of climate change on water supply, water demand and sector water scarcity as well as economic losses.