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本文应用向量自回归（ＶＡＲ）方法，研究了导致物价波动的主要冲击因素，分析了这些因素对经济增长的影响及其作用强度和相关关系，并作了区域价格波动与经济增长的相关分析实证研究。研究表明，价格水平的变化与经济增长之间存在着显著的相关关系。ＧＤＰ和居民消费都是价格波动的主要冲击因素。居民消费负冲击是导致经济低迷、经济增长趋缓的原因。经济增长趋缓引起了社会对经济形势的不良预期，进而引起非国有投资和消费水平的进一步下降，导致经济增长率继续下降。上述研究进一步证明了价格作为“经济显示器”的作用。
In this paper, the main impact factors of price volatility are studied by means of vector autoregression (VAR). The impact of these factors on the economic growth, the intensity and the correlation between them are analyzed, and the correlation analysis between the regional price volatility and economic growth is made the study. Research shows that there is a significant correlation between changes in price levels and economic growth. Both GDP and household consumption are the main shocks to price volatility. The negative impact of resident consumption is the cause of economic downturn and slowing of economic growth. The slowdown in economic growth has aroused undesirable social expectations of the economic situation, causing further declines in the level of non-state investment and consumption, resulting in a continued decline in the rate of economic growth. The above study further proves the role of price as an “economic display.”