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一、对1998年～1999年全球经济增长的预测 1998年8月中旬和9月上旬,俄罗斯和拉美相继出现金融动荡,显示亚洲金融风暴已演变为全球性金融动荡。美国长期资本管理及其他对冲基金出现巨额亏损,暴露出一些大银行存在巨大的风险敞口,给整个国际金融体系敲响了警钟。金融恐慌在投资者当中蔓延,投资纷纷从风险较高的公司债券转向国债市场,美国银行开始收缩对企业的贷款,企业融资成本明
I. Anticipation of the Global Economic Growth from 1998 to 1999 In mid-August and early September 1998, Russia and Latin America successively witnessed financial turmoil, showing that the Asian financial turmoil has evolved into a global financial turmoil. The huge loss of long-term capital management and other hedge funds in the United States exposed the huge risk exposure of some big banks and sounded the alarm for the entire international financial system. Financial panics spread among investors, with investment shifting from riskier corporate bonds to the national debt market. Bank of America began to reduce its lending to businesses.