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在定义生长季节长度(GSL)、生长季节开始时间(LSF)以及生长季节结束时间(FFF)三个生长季节指数的基础上,采用模糊聚类、稳健回归及Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法分析新疆1961—2010年生长季节指数时空变化特征,并针对作物生长季节指数变化对区域农业生产的影响进行了深入探讨。结果表明:新疆20世纪90年代中期,GSL变化幅度很大,低纬地区生长季节受低温影响较小,而随纬度上升,中高纬地区生长季节受低温影响越大。生长季节长度的变化与秋季低温(生长季节结束时间)变化情况紧密相连,全疆生长季节长度在80%的保证率下,较多年平均生长季节长度缩短5~14 d。生长季节长度的延长,会导致净初级生产力以及年蒸散发总量上升,继而影响水文、生态系统以及生物地球化学过程。
Based on the definition of growth season length (GSL), growth season start time (LSF) and growth season ending time (FFF), three growth season indices were analyzed by fuzzy clustering, robust regression and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test The spatial and temporal characteristics of the growing season index in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2010, and the influence of the seasonal index of crop growth on the regional agricultural production was discussed in depth. The results show that the GSL varied greatly in Xinjiang in the mid-1990s, while the low-latitude region was less affected by the low temperature in the mid-high latitudes. However, with the increase of latitude, the GSL in the growing season was more affected by the low temperature. The change of growth season length is closely related to the autumn low temperature (the ending time of growing season). The length of growing season in Xinjiang is shortened by 5 ~ 14 days under the guaranteed rate of 80%. An increase in the length of the growing season will result in an increase in the net primary productivity and the total amount of annual evapotranspiration, which in turn will affect hydrology, ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.