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日本经济自2009年第一季度进入新一轮回升,目前态势已趋于稳定,主要表现为增长势头逐步强化、工矿业生产快速恢复、企业效益明显改善和消费需求稳步扩大等。政府经济刺激政策发挥效用和出口快速增长产生强劲的外需拉动,是日本经济此轮回升的两大主要推动因素,特别是“中国特需”做出了突出贡献。日本经济目前仍面临多方面的矛盾和问题,其中最应关注的是财政危机空前恶化、失业问题难以缓解、设备投资尚未恢复和股票市场波动不定。加上国际金融危机可能二次触底、日元快速升值无法得到遏制和经济刺激政策难以继续实施等三大因素带来的消极影响,未来日本经济继续回升的前景不容乐观。
The economy of Japan has entered a new round of recovery since the first quarter of 2009 and the current trend has stabilized. The main trend is the gradual strengthening of growth momentum, the rapid recovery of industrial and mining production, the significant improvement of enterprise efficiency and the steady expansion of consumer demand. The strong stimulating external demand driven by the effectiveness of the government’s economic stimulus and the rapid growth of exports are the two major drivers of the recovery of the Japanese economy. In particular, “China’s special needs” have made outstanding contributions. Japan’s economy is still facing many contradictions and problems. The most concern should be the unprecedented worsening of the financial crisis, the ease of unemployment, the unmet investment in equipment and the volatility of the stock market. Coupled with the possible negative impact of the three major factors that the international financial crisis may double bottom, the rapid appreciation of the yen can not be stopped and economic stimulus measures continue to be implemented, the future of Japan’s economy will not be optimistic.