笔者对我院儿科1991年1月至1993年12月的住院人数资料进行分析,运用季节性移动平均法建立预测模型:X_(i+k)=(46.11-0.21*i)Kli。分别预测了1994年各月的住院人数。同时,对1994年1月至6月的住院人数预测值与实际值进行比较,平均绝对百分比误差为9.89％。属高精度预测。根据预测结果,我们采取了减少病床,安排季节性工作等对策。 The author analyzes the number of inpatients in our department from January 1991 to December 1993, and uses the seasonal moving average method to establish a prediction model: X_(i+k)=(46.11-0.21*i)Kli. The number of hospital admissions in each month in 1994 was predicted. At the same time, the comparison between the predicted number of hospital admissions from January to June 1994 and the actual value, the average absolute percentage error was 9.89%. It is a high-precision forecast. According to the forecast results, we have adopted countermeasures such as reducing beds and arranging seasonal work.