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目的了解喀什地区黑热病地理分布特征和趋势。方法采用趋势面分析方法,对喀什试点地区1990～2005年黑热病累计发病率资料进行分析,建立趋势面数学模型。采用趋势面拟合适度的R检验及显著性F检验、趋势面适度的逐次检验和根据疾病的地理流行病学特征直观判断4种方法确定最终模型阶次。结果根据趋势面数学模型绘制的各界次的趋势面图经过4种方法综合分析,3阶趋势面方程为最适模型,其拟合方程为:z=132.040 533+ 3.430 846 5x-2.569 720y-0.125 046x~2+0.026 609 2xy+0.023 260 9y~2-0.000 101 7x~3+0.002 537 7x~2y- 0.001 609 9xy~2-0.000 397y~3(R~2=0.693 7,P=0.017 4),从理论和实际上能较好的反映黑热病的空间分布情况。结论趋势面分布图显示喀什地区黑热病累计发病率具有明显的空间聚集性分布的特点,为进一步研究黑热病的控制策略提供了依据。
Objective To understand the geographical distribution and trend of kala-azar in Kashgar region. Methods Using trend surface analysis, the cumulative incidence of kala-azar in Kashgar from 1990 to 2005 was analyzed, and the trend surface mathematical model was established. The trend surface was fitted with appropriate R test and significant F test, the trend of the surface of a moderate test and the geographical epidemiological features of the disease intuitively determine the four methods to determine the final model order. Results According to the trend maps of each sub-plot drawn from the mathematical model of the trend surface, through the comprehensive analysis of four methods, the third-order trend surface equation is the most suitable model. The fitting equation is z = 132.040 533 + 3.430 846 5x-2.569 720y-0.125 (R 2 = 0.693 7, P = 0.017 4) in the range of -0.46x to 2 + 0.026 609 2xy + 0.023 260 9y to 2-0.000 101 7x to 3 + 0.002 537 7x to 2y to 0.001 609 9xy to 2-0.000 397y to 3 In theory and in fact, can better reflect the spatial distribution of kala-azar. Conclusion The distribution of trend surface shows that the cumulative incidence of kala-azar in Kashgar has obvious spatial distribution, which provides the basis for further research on the control strategy of kala-azar.