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依据张掖市近50年来的冬季气温观测资料,运用Mann-Kendall法、小波分析、空间插值等方法,对张掖市冬季气温的时空分布规律和变化周期进行分析。结果表明:冬季气温总体上呈现增暖的趋势(β值为0.08),线性增长率为0.56℃/10a,相当于近50年冬季气温升高了2.8℃,冬季增温对全年升温的贡献率高达89%。1985年冬季气温发生突变,之后进入偏暖期,1987年后增温趋势更加显著。冬季气温存在10年左右和22年左右的振荡周期,其中22年左右的振荡周期较强。冬季气温空间分布不均,呈现出由东南向西北逐渐增温的趋势。冬季气温从20世纪70年代起就开始增温,东部增温速度明显高于西部,冬季气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年内。
According to the observation data of winter temperature in Zhangye City in the past 50 years, the spatial and temporal distribution of winter air temperature in Zhangye city and its change period were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method, wavelet analysis and spatial interpolation. The results showed that the winter temperature showed a general trend of warming (β = 0.08) and the linear growth rate was 0.56 ℃ / 10a, which was equivalent to a rise of 2.8 ℃ in winter in the past 50 years. The contribution of winter warming to annual warming Rate up to 89%. The winter temperature in 1985 mutated, then entered the warmer period, the trend of warming after 1987 is more pronounced. The winter temperature has about 10 years and 22 years of oscillation period, of which about 22 years the oscillation period is strong. The spatial distribution of winter temperature is uneven, showing a trend of warming gradually from southeast to northwest. The temperature in winter started to increase from the 1970s, while the warming rate in the east was obviously higher than that in the west. The warming in winter occurred mainly in the recent 20 years.