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“淹没问题”的提出是当代知识论“价值转向”的一个标志性事件,它主要用于攻击可靠论,认为可靠性的价值会被真的价值所“淹没”。为此,戈德曼和奥尔森提出条件概率解决方案,即可靠性的价值主要体现在它提高了未来真信念的概率。该方案失败的根源在于可靠论本身以及其背后所隐含的传统知识论分析路径。在威廉姆森的“知识第一”的知识论纲领下,一种新的条件概率解决方案是可行的,即根据证据概率表明,知识比真信念更持久,因此,更有价值。
The proposal of “Inundation Problem” is a landmark event in contemporary epistemology “Value Transition”, which is mainly used to attack the theory of reliability and believes that the value of reliability will be “submerged” by the true value. To this end, Goldman and Olsen put forward a conditional probability solution, that is, the value of reliability lies in the fact that it increases the probability of true beliefs in the future. The root cause of the failure of this program lies in the theory itself and the traditional analysis of the traditional knowledge path behind it. Under Williamson’s “Knowledge First” epistemology, a new conditional probability solution is feasible, which means that according to the probability of evidence, knowledge is more lasting than true belief and thus more valuable.