论文部分内容阅读
投标风险测度是投标决策的重要基础。通过系统分析国际水电工程项目投标风险影响因素,从经济条件、环境条件、项目条件、竞争对手、自身条件等主要方面构建风险指标体系;基于国际水电工程项目投标的小样本数据特点,.采用三角模糊数表征风险指标判断,计算各风险指标的模糊重要值及权重向量,通过对风险综合集结,实现项目风险的模糊测度。研究结果表明,该方法考虑了人主观判断的局限性,对不可量化的风险进行模糊测度,计算了各指标相互影响的总体风险水平,可为国际水电项目投标风险的确定提供一定参考。
Bidding risk measurement is an important basis for bidding decisions. By systematically analyzing the influencing factors of bidding risk of international hydropower projects, the risk index system is constructed from the aspects of economic conditions, environmental conditions, project conditions, competitors and own conditions. Based on the characteristics of small sample data of bidding of international hydropower projects, The fuzzy number characterizes the judgment of risk index, calculates the fuzzy important value and weight vector of each risk index, and realizes the fuzzy measure of project risk through the integrated assembly of risk. The results show that the method takes into account the limitations of human subjective judgments, fuzzily measures the unverifiable risk and calculates the overall risk level of the mutual influence of each index, which can provide some reference for the determination of the bidding risk of international hydropower projects.