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本文用Moran’s I检验安徽省17个地级市的空间相关性,采用地理空间权重矩阵对安徽省1991-2008年的人均GDP建立了收敛空间误差模型。通过将18年数据按每9年为一个时段,划分为滚动的10个时段,考察安徽省经济收敛的动态变化过程。结果表明:安徽地区17个地级市在8个时段上都存在空间相关性,在整个时间段和前两个时段上是收敛的,之后各地级市发展不平衡,呈现发散的态势,但近期的三个时段上β值又在减少,有趋于零的趋势,说明经济存在收敛的可能性。
In this paper, we use Moran’s I to test the spatial correlation of 17 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province, and use geospatial weight matrix to establish a spatial error model of convergence for per capita GDP in Anhui Province from 1991 to 2008. By dividing the data of 18 years into 10 periods every 9 years, this paper examines the dynamic process of economic convergence in Anhui Province. The results show that there are spatial correlations in all the 17 prefecture-level cities in Anhui province over the eight time periods, converging over the entire time period and the first two periods, and then the development of different prefecture-level cities is unbalanced and divergent. However, The three periods on the β value is decreasing again, tends to zero trend, indicating the possibility of economic convergence.