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运用重心模型,采用1996~2006年江苏省经济和环境数据,计算出各年份GDP、工业产值、COD、SO2和TSP排放重心坐标,揭示江苏省经济重心和环境污染排放重心变化轨迹及演变规律,以期为江苏省环境宏观战略决策及生态省建设提供理论参考。研究表明,经济重心总体上向东南方向偏移,GDP重心偏移距离为14.81 km,工业产值重心偏移距离为12.84 km;经济重心在南北方向上的偏移程度大于东西方向的偏移程度。环境污染排放重心也向东南方向偏移,COD和TSP排放重心轨迹呈现较大变化,SO2排放重心轨迹变动较小;COD排放重心偏移距离为79.26 km,SO2排放重心偏移距离为15.73 km,TSP排放重心偏移距离为42.24 km;各污染排放重心轨迹在不同时段表现出不同特点。COD、SO2和TSP排放重心相对于经济重心偏向于西北方向,且COD排放重心近年来明显趋向于工业产值重心;COD排放重心和TSP排放重心与经济重心存在着强正相关。
Based on the economic and environmental data of Jiangsu Province from 1996 to 2006, the center of gravity model was used to calculate the coordinates of the center of gravity of GDP, industrial output value, COD, SO2 and TSP emissions in each year, to reveal the trajectory and evolution of the center of gravity of the economic focus and environmental pollution in Jiangsu Province, With a view to provide a theoretical reference for macroscopic strategic decision making and ecological province construction in Jiangsu Province. The research shows that the center of gravity of the economy is offset to the southeast as a whole, the center of gravity of GDP is offset by 14.81 km, and the center of gravity of industrial output is offset by 12.84 km. The deviation of economic center of gravity in the north-south direction is greater than that in the east-west direction. The center of emission of environmental pollutants also shifted to the southeast, COD and TSP emission center of gravity trajectories showed significant changes, SO2 emissions center of gravity trajectory changes smaller; COD emission center of gravity offset distance of 79.26 km, SO2 emission center of gravity offset distance of 15.73 km, TSP discharge center of gravity offset distance of 42.24 km; emission center of gravity trajectory in different periods showed different characteristics. The center of gravity of COD, SO2 and TSP is biased to the northwest relative to the economic center of gravity, and the center of COD discharge tends to be the focus of industrial output in recent years. There is a strong positive correlation between the center of gravity of COD discharge and the center of gravity of TSP.