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本文以１９８２～１９９２年安徽省棉花品种区域试验的年度平均皮棉产量及其组分和纤维品质指标为资料，建立ＧＭ（１．１）动态模型，对棉花新品种产量与纤维品质的发展趋势进行研究。结果表明，皮棉产量呈上升趋势，到２０００年可达１４７９．３６ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，产量组分中单株铃数、衣分呈上升趋势，单铃重呈下降趋势，分别可达２３．０５８个、４２．０５１％和４．５９ｇ。在纤维品质指标中，主体长度和细度均呈上升趋势，单强、断裂长度和成熟系数呈下降趋势，到２０００年分别可达３２．２８２ｍｍ、５７７８ｍ／ｇ、３．５３９ｇ、２１．３２６ｋｍ和１．４７ｇ。、－０．３１２和０．５５８。２．２纤维品质指标的发展趋势分析纤维品质指标主体长度、单强、细度、断裂长度以及成熟系数的ＧＭ（１．１）模型及精度（表４）。由表４所得模型预测值与实际值基本吻合，经检验，模型精度除断裂长度为三级外，其它均达一、二级标准，预测值可靠。利用表４模型预测１９９５、２０００年纤维品质指标，并以１９９１年为基数计算到２０００年安徽省棉花新品种纤维品质指标平均年递增、递减百分率（表５）。表５结果表明，９０年代棉花新品种纤维品质指标的发展趋势是：主体长度和细度升高，预计到２０?
In this paper, the average annual lint yield and its components and fiber quality indicators of cotton varieties regional trials in Anhui Province from 1982 to 1992 were used as the data to establish the dynamic model of GM (1.1), the development trend of the yield and fiber quality of new cotton varieties the study. The results showed that the lint yield showed an upward trend, reaching 1479.36kg / hm2 by the year 2000. The number of bolls per plant and the lint percentage of the yield components showed an upward trend. The single boll weight showed a downward trend of 23.058, 42.051% and 4.59g. In the fiber quality index, the main body length and fineness all showed an upward trend, the single strong, the rupture length and the mature coefficient showed a downward trend, which reached 32.282mm, 5778m / g, 3.539g, 21.326km and 1.47g. , -0.312 and 0.558.2.2 Development Trend of Fiber Quality Index GM (1.1) model and accuracy of fiber length, single strength, fineness, breaking length and maturity coefficient (Table 4 ). The prediction values of the model obtained from Table 4 are basically consistent with the actual values. Except for the rupture length of the model, the accuracy of the model reaches Grade I and II, and the prediction value is reliable. Using the Table 4 model to predict the fiber quality index in 1995 and 2000, and calculating the average annual increment and the percentage decrement of the fiber quality index of new cotton varieties in Anhui Province in 2000 based on 1991 (Table 5). Table 5 The results show that the trend of fiber quality indicators of new varieties of cotton in the 90’s are: the main body length and fineness increased, expected to 20?