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以长江流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量、成纱品质指标,以及产量组分、纤维物理性能资料,建立GM(1,1)动态模型,对长江流域棉花新品种产量与纤维品质的发展趋势作了预测。结果表明:皮棉产量、单株铃数、衣分、主体长度、细度、成熟度和成纱品质均呈上升趋势;而铃重、单纤维强力与断裂长度为下降趋势。这将为育种家调整育种目标,改进选择技术提供依据。
Based on the cotton lint yield, the quality index of cotton yarn, the yield components and the fiber physical properties of cotton cultivars in the Yangtze River Valley, the GM (1,1) dynamic model was established to evaluate the yield and fiber quality of new cotton varieties in the Yangtze River Basin. The development trend has been predicted. The results showed that the lint yield, number of bolls per plant, lint percentage, main length, fineness, maturity and yarn quality all showed an increasing trend; while boll weight, single fiber strength and breaking length decreased. This will provide a basis for breeders to adjust their breeding goals and improve selection techniques.