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经济周期是宏观经济学研究的中心问题。本文使用系统动力学工具,建立模拟模型,对经济周期进行创新性研究。模型的模拟结果验证了经济周期研究中“非对称性”和“过度投资非经济波动原因”两个重要理论,证明了模型的有效性。我们进一步使用模型对不同货币和财政政策组合下的经济周期发展进行模拟,得出了对比数据,获得了一些对政策组合效果的评价结论,据此对我国宏观经济政策提出了一些建议。
Economic cycle is the central issue of macroeconomics. In this paper, we use system dynamics tools to establish simulation models and conduct innovative research on economic cycles. The simulation results of the model validate two important theories of “asymmetry ” and “causes of overinvestment of non-economic fluctuations ” in the economic cycle research, and prove the validity of the model. We further use the model to simulate the development of the economic cycle under different monetary and fiscal policy combinations, obtain the comparative data and get some conclusions about the effect of the policy portfolio. Based on this, we put forward some suggestions for our macroeconomic policy.