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在分析中国粮食作物化肥施用特征的基础上,运用分位数回归模型探究了1994年以来化肥施用强度对早籼稻、中籼稻、晚籼稻、粳稻、小麦、玉米6种粮食单产水平的影响。研究表明:1)中国粮食作物的化肥施用强度增长具有明显的阶段性特征;6种粮食作物的化肥施用强度持续增加,且均超出国际安全施用标准;小麦与玉米的化肥施用强度显著高于水稻;部分品种的化肥施用强度已出现优势产区和非优势产区、东中西部的区域差异。2)粮食作物的化肥施用强度与其单产水平具有显著的关联效应。3)晚籼稻、粳稻和玉米的化肥施用强度对其单产仍存在正向作用,但已呈现边际效用递减特征;小麦、早籼稻和中籼稻的这种影响不再显著,已有过度施用特征。今后在坚持化肥施用零增长前提下,注重科学施用化肥、有效提高化肥利用率,在保障粮食安全与促进农业可持续发展之间达成平衡,是坚持中国特色农业现代化道路的必然要求。
Based on the analysis of the characteristics of chemical fertilizer application in grain crops in China, the quantile regression model was used to investigate the effect of chemical fertilizer intensity on grain yield of early indica rice, middle indica rice, late indica rice, japonica rice, wheat and corn since 1994. The results showed that: 1) The intensity of chemical fertilizer application in Chinese grain crops had obvious stage characteristics. The intensities of chemical fertilizer application on 6 kinds of food crops continued to increase, and all exceeded the international standards for safety application. The intensities of chemical fertilizer application on wheat and maize were significantly higher than those on rice ; Some varieties of fertilizer application intensity has emerged in the dominant and non-dominant producing areas, the eastern, central and western regional differences. 2) The fertilizer application intensity of grain crops has a significant correlation with the yield level. 3) Late-indica rice, japonica rice and maize had a positive effect on the yield of fertilizer, but had a diminishing marginal utility effect. The effect of wheat, early indica rice and middle indica rice was no longer significant and had been overexpressed. In the future, insisting on zero growth of chemical fertilizer application, focusing on the scientific application of chemical fertilizers and effectively increasing the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers, achieving a balance between ensuring food security and promoting sustainable agricultural development is an inevitable requirement of adhering to the road of agricultural modernization with Chinese characteristics.