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本文采用(进口)非竞争型投入产出模型测算了2002-2009年中国二氧化碳的生产排放、消费排放、出口排放及进口排放,并采用投入产出结构分解方法对消费排放与出口排放的影响因素进行了分解分析。生产排放量与消费排放量分别从405509.15MT与407266.16MT增加至602281.91MT与573106.09MT。除2002年外,其余年份生产排放量都大于消费排放量,缘由在于此间出口含碳量都大于进口含碳量。分解结果显示,在研究期间,国内最终需求规模和进口规模的扩张是消费排放增长的主要原因,出口规模是出口排放增长的主要原因,最终消费及中间产品的需求逐步趋向于高碳排放产品,中间投入技术呈一定进步趋势,但能源效率得到较大程度的改善,但能源结构和出口结构仍不够理想。
In this paper, we use the (import) non-competitive input-output model to estimate the production, consumption, export and import of carbon dioxide in China from 2002 to 2009 and use the structural decomposition of input-output to determine the factors that affect the emissions of consumer and export A decomposition analysis was carried out. Production emissions and consumption emissions increased from 405509.15MT and 407266.16MT respectively to 602281.91MT and 573106.09MT. Except for 2002, all other production emissions in the year are greater than the consumption emissions, because here the export carbon content is greater than the imported carbon content. The decomposition results show that during the study period, the final domestic demand scale and the expansion of import scale are the main reasons for the increase of consumption emissions. The export size is the main reason for the increase of export emissions. The demand for final consumption and intermediate products gradually tends to high-carbon emission products, The intermediate investment in technology shows a certain trend of progress, but the energy efficiency has been greatly improved, but the energy structure and export structure are still not ideal.