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加卸载响应比(LURR)的精髓在于通过能够刻画震源区介质损伤程度的物理参数,来反映地震孕育的进程,从而预测地震。近30年来,人们对加卸载响应比做了大量研究,取得了一系列进展,在地震预测实践中也取得了一定的效果,尤其是加卸载响应比异常区与地震发生的位置有较好的对应性。但是预测效果仍不够理想,其原因主要是:在实际预测中对当地的地球物理情况考虑得不够。我们想到了加卸载响应比与量纲分析相结合的方法,综合考虑当地的地球物理情况,例如剪应变率和平均地震耗散能量等因素的影响。文中选取发生在中国大陆的34个震例资料,通过分析选取与发震震级和时间相关的无量纲量π1和π3,根据对实际数据的拟合,π1和π3均与震级成指数关系。在应用于地震预测实践时,首先根据LURR空间扫描结果选取异常区,然后确定异常区的地球物理参数,再根据LURR时空扫描结果得到Ipp,Tpp和π1和π3,通过π1确定震级M,再由π3确定发震时间Tp,从而形成了系统地预测地震三要素(震源位置,震级和发震时间)的思路。由于该项新方法的数值模拟对于计算提出了更高的要求,因此并行计算的引入非常必需,从而为地震预测工作提供了更强有力的工具。
The essence of LURR lies in the prediction of earthquakes by reflecting the process of earthquake breeding through the physical parameters that can characterize the extent of media damage in the source area. In the recent 30 years, a great deal of research has been done on the response ratio of unloading and unloading, and a series of progress has been made. Some achievements have been made in earthquake prediction practice, especially the unloading response is better than that of anomalous and seismogenic Correspondence. However, the forecasting effect is still not satisfactory enough. The main reasons for this are as follows: In the actual prediction, the local geophysical situation is not considered enough. We think of a combination of unloading response ratio and dimensional analysis, taking into account local geophysical conditions such as shear strain rate and average seismic energy dissipation. In this paper, 34 earthquake cases occurred in mainland China were selected. By analyzing and selecting the dimensionless quantities π1 and π3 related to the earthquake magnitude and time, both π1 and π3 were exponentially related to the magnitude according to the fitting of the actual data. When applied to the prediction of earthquake, we first select the anomalous zone based on the LURR spatial scanning results, then determine the geophysical parameters of the anomalous zone, and then obtain Ipp, Tpp and π1 and π3 according to LURR spatio-temporal scanning results, determine the magnitude M by π1, π3 to determine the occurrence time Tp, thus forming a systematic prediction of the three elements of the earthquake (source location, magnitude and seismogenic time) ideas. Since the numerical simulation of the new method poses higher requirements for calculation, the introduction of parallel computation is very necessary, which provides a powerful tool for earthquake prediction.