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针对固体火箭发动机装药贮存寿命预估的难题,开展了固体火箭发动机贮存可靠性、装药老化性能、药柱结构完整性分析等几个方面的研究,建立了GM-RBF网络模型、基于修正Ar-rhenius的交变温度预测模型、基于加速老化和结构完整性分析的装药贮存寿命预估模型,从不同角度来对装药贮存寿命进行组合预测。在此基础上,设计和开发了预测系统,通过实验数据和仿真分析,得到实例的装药贮存寿命区间为10.5～13.2y。研究表明:这种组合预测的方法避免了单一算法的局限性,提高了预测精度。
Aiming at the problem of estimating the storage life of solid rocket motor, the research on the storage reliability, charge aging performance and structural integrity analysis of solid rocket motor was carried out. The GM-RBF network model was established based on the modified Ar-rhenius’s predictive model of alternating temperature, and based on the analysis of accelerated aging and structural integrity analysis of the charge storage life prediction model, from different perspectives combined charge storage life prediction. On this basis, the forecasting system is designed and developed. The experimental data and simulation analysis show that the range of the sample storage life is 10.5 ~ 13.2y. The research shows that the method of combined forecasting avoids the limitations of a single algorithm and improves the prediction accuracy.