【选注者言:当前全球经济动荡,公司兼并成风,亚洲金融危机乌云未消,中国部分个体“经济恐龙”骤成“昨夜星辰”……。真是商场如战场:险象环生、错综复杂、变化莫测,然而本文中的教授、总裁和专家们认为完全能够预测,并有可能达到“深谋远虑”。方法是应用混沌和复杂化(chaos and complexity)理论:从混沌中得到灵感和启迪,发现混沌的最佳点(the edge of chaos)——保持紊乱与规则、无序与有序和变化与稳定之间的平衡;在此最佳点,竞争的核心是公司要具有“复杂适应体系”(CASs),成为灵活机动的组织,最大限度地发挥人的主观能动性,就能具有对付未来的变化和动乱的适应力和应变力。这样的公司组织就会像海绵一样吸收经济战场上必然出现又难以预测的震动。 专家们认为应用混沌理论懂得世界经济的相互联系就能实现革命性的洞察未来的深谋远虑。 本文主题鲜明、结构严谨、层次清晰、文字流畅,尤其是举例生动,如爵士音乐、蚁群、行进中的羊群和“蝴蝶效应”等。相信您读完此文后决不会对混沌和复杂化理论感到“混沌”和“复杂”。】 [An election note: The current global economic turmoil has led to mergers and acquisitions, and the dark clouds of the Asian financial crisis have not disappeared. Some of China’s individual “economic dinosaurs” suddenly became “stars last night”... It is really a shopping arcade, such as a battlefield: dangerous, complex, and unpredictable. However, the professors, presidents, and experts in this article believe that they can fully predict and possibly achieve “deep forethought.” The method is to apply the theory of chaos and complexity (chaos and complexity): Inspire and inspire from chaos, find the edge of chaos - keep disorder and rules, disorder and order, change and stability The balance between the two; at this optimal point, the core of competition is that companies must have “complex adaptation systems” (CASs), become flexible and mobile organizations, maximize the human subjective initiative, and they will have the ability to deal with future changes and Unpredictable adaptability and resilience. Such a corporate organization will resemble a sponge and absorb the inevitable and unpredictable vibrations on the economic battlefield. Experts believe that using chaos theory to understand the interrelationship of the world economy can achieve revolutionary insight into the future. The theme of this article is clear, rigorous, clear, and fluent, especially with vivid examples such as jazz music, ant colonies, herding sheep and “butterfly effect”. I believe that after reading this article you will never feel “chaotic” or “complex” about the theory of chaos and complications. 】