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边坡稳定性评价系统中最大的瓶颈是评价因子的离散性,且赋存状态层间性明显,据此,随机抽样100组岩石力学室内试验结果作为总样本,引入随机-模糊概率统计方法,将处于不同稳定级别的因子出现隶属概率作为其在该级别下的隶属度量值,有效避免了选取评价因子实测值时主观意识参与过多。同时,基于概率统计理论,将头脑风暴法中不同专家的意见进行数理统计后归纳总结,得出具有代表性的权重值,更能综合考虑不同专家认可的侧重点,取得较好的效果。将研究结果应用到模糊评价系统中,对如美水电站左岸边坡进行岩体力学参数强度评价,得到了较好的结果。
The biggest bottleneck of slope stability evaluation system is the dispersion of evaluation factors, and the interlamination state is obvious. Based on this, a random sample of 100 sets of rock mechanics laboratory test results as a total sample, the introduction of stochastic - fuzzy probability statistics method, The subordinate probability of the factors at different levels of stability is taken as the subordinate measure under this level, which effectively avoids the excessive participation of subjective consciousness in the selection of the measured value of the evaluation factor. At the same time, based on the theory of probability and statistics, we summarize the opinions of different experts in brainstorming by mathematical statistics, get the representative weight value, and can better consider the different points of emphasis recognized by different experts and achieve better results. Applying the research results to the fuzzy evaluation system, the strength of rock mass mechanics parameters on the left bank slope of the US hydropower station is evaluated, and good results are obtained.