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在统计矩点估计法和模糊随机理论的基础之上,提出边坡工程模糊随机可靠性分析的模糊点估计法,将边坡稳定性极限状态方程由模糊随机集向普通随机集转化,然后利用点估计法求解边坡的可靠度指标。鉴于岩土体物理力学参数的近似分布类型,采用区别于梯形模糊数的正态模糊数对随机变量进行模糊随机化处理,使其更趋近于物理力学参数的近似分布类型。该方法考虑了各个力学参数的模糊性,计算结果更能反映边坡的真实工作状态。算例分析结果表明,该法使用简便,计算效率高,结果可靠,避免了传统分析方法的缺点,对复杂边坡或者功能函数为隐式表达的边坡工程可靠性分析具有很大的潜力,为边坡可靠性分析提供了一条新的途径,具有广泛的应用前景。
On the basis of statistical moment estimation and fuzzy stochastic theory, a fuzzy point estimation method is proposed for fuzzy random reliability analysis of slope engineering. The limit state equation of slope stability is transformed from fuzzy random set to ordinary random set, Point Estimation Method to Solve the Reliability Index of Slope. In view of the approximate distribution type of physical and mechanical parameters of rock and soil, fuzzy randomization of random variables by using normal fuzzy numbers different from trapezoidal fuzzy numbers is made, which is closer to the approximate distribution type of physical and mechanical parameters. The method takes into account the fuzziness of various mechanical parameters and the calculation results can better reflect the real working condition of the slope. The results of example analysis show that the method has the advantages of simple operation, high computational efficiency and reliable results, which avoids the shortcomings of traditional analytical methods and has great potential for the reliability analysis of complex slopes or implicit expressions of functional slopes. It provides a new approach for slope reliability analysis and has a wide range of application prospects.