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本文利用灰色灾变预测模型，采用松花江佳木斯水文站历年获得的冰情、冰坝资料，预估未来发生冰坝的灾变年，以此作为冰坝预测的一种新方法探讨。
In this paper, gray catastrophe prediction model is used to estimate the catastrophic year of ice dam in the future by using the ice conditions and ice dam data acquired by the Jiamusi Hydrological Station over the years in Songhua River as a new method for predicting ice dam.