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为完善海底油气管道风险评价技术,引入模糊集理论,构建基于Mamdani型模糊推理系统的风险评价模型。依据海底油气管道的实际情况,改进传统肯特评分法,将风险因素划分为第三方破坏(TPD)、腐蚀(C)、设计(D)、误操作(IO)和自然环境(NE)5大类;用Mamdani模糊推理方法代替原有的算法,计算指标总分(IS)和泄漏影响系数(LIF),得到海底油气管道风险值;借助Matlab模糊工具箱,以某海底管道为实例进行分析。结果表明,管段3的风险高于管段2,管段4的风险高于管段1,该方法不仅比传统的肯特评分法更切合实际,且计算方便准确。
In order to improve the risk assessment technology of submarine oil and gas pipelines, the fuzzy set theory is introduced to build a risk assessment model based on Mamdani fuzzy inference system. According to the actual situation of submarine oil and gas pipelines, the traditional Kent scoring method is improved and the risk factors are divided into five major categories: TPD, corrosion, design, DIO, and NE ; Using Mamdani fuzzy reasoning method instead of the original algorithm to calculate the index score (IS) and the leakage influence coefficient (LIF), and get the risk value of submarine oil and gas pipelines; with Matlab fuzzy toolbox, take a submarine pipe as an example to analyze. The results show that the risk of pipe section 3 is higher than that of pipe section 2, and the risk of pipe section 4 is higher than that of pipe section 1. This method is not only more practical than the traditional Kent scoring method, and the calculation is convenient and accurate.