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随着12月美国农业部报告利空出台,市场对美国出口及内需数据的利空影响已有所消化,在2012年1月中旬左右可以关注南美天气及美国种植面积变化可能引发的反弹行情。2011年以来,大连豆粕(4249,15.00,0.35%)期货从年初的3 500元/t一线跌至目前的2 700元/t,累计跌幅达23%。除了国家调控和欧美债务问题造成的利空以外,由于美国自身压榨需求疲软及南美货币贬值造成对美国的出口冲击也是主要原因。
As devaluation of the USDA report in December has brought the market negative impact on the US export and domestic demand data has been digested, in mid-January 2012 can be concerned about the weather in South America and the United States may change the acreage caused by acreage. Since 2011, the soybean futures of Dalian (4249,15.00,0.35%) have fallen from the beginning of 3,500 yuan / ton to the current price of 2,700 yuan / t, a drop of 23% in total. In addition to the negative effects caused by the country’s control and the debt problems in Europe and the United States, the United States exports are also the main reason for the sluggish demand from the United States and the devaluation of the South American currency.