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目的预测乌鲁木齐市吸毒者艾滋病感染趋势,为艾滋病防治工作提供科学的参考依据。方法利用乌鲁木齐市2009—2015年吸毒者艾滋病感染率数据,应用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型,建立乌鲁木齐市吸毒者艾滋病的感染率预测模型。结果吸毒者艾滋病感染率的GM(1,1)模型为x1(k+1)=-211.846e-0.099k+238.176,拟合效果较好(C=0.167,P=1),利用模型外推预测乌鲁木齐市2016—2018年的吸毒者艾滋病感染率分别为11.00%,9.97%和9.04%。结论运用GM(1,1)模型模拟和预测艾滋病感染率在时间序列上的变化趋势较为方便适用。通过预测可知,乌鲁木齐市吸毒者未来3年艾滋病的感染率将逐年下降。
Objective To predict the trend of HIV infection among drug addicts in Urumqi and provide a scientific reference for AIDS prevention and control. Methods Based on the data of HIV infection among drug users in Urumqi from 2009 to 2015, a gray system GM (1,1) model was used to establish a prediction model of HIV infection among drug users in Urumqi. Results The GM (1,1) model of HIV / AIDS among drug users was x1 (k + 1) = -211.846e-0.099k + 238.176, and the fitting effect was better (C = 0.167, P = 1) It is estimated that the prevalence of HIV infection among drug users in Urumqi during 2016-2018 is 11.00%, 9.97% and 9.04% respectively. Conclusion It is convenient and convenient to use GM (1,1) model to simulate and forecast the trend of HIV infection in time series. According to the forecast, the infection rate of AIDS among drug addicts in Urumqi will decrease year by year in the next three years.