论文部分内容阅读
利用86个国家或地区1970—2013年的跨国面板数据,考察城镇化、服务业发展与居民消费之间的关系。跨国经验表明,在剔除陷入“城镇化陷阱”的非洲国家后,城镇化对于提升居民消费率具有显著的正向效应;服务业发展对于居民消费率的影响显著为正。进一步将样本扩展为153个国家及一系列稳健性检验后,城镇化、服务业发展对于居民消费的影响仍然显著为正,而且,城镇化对于居民消费率的提升效应更强。跨国经验也表明,一国高等教育普及水平越高,居民消费率也越高。因此,城镇化、服务业发展对于居民消费的“结构奖赏”大于“结构负担”效应。在中国“城镇化、服务业发展滞后”的背景下,更应通过人口城镇化和放松服务业管制,促进居民消费增长。
Using cross-country panel data from 86 countries or regions from 1970 to 2013, examine the relationship between urbanization, service sector development and household consumption. Transnational experience shows that urbanization has a significant positive effect on raising the household consumption rate after excluding the African countries trapped in the “urbanization trap.” The impact of service development on household consumption rates is significantly positive. After further expanding the sample to 153 countries and a series of robustness tests, the impact of urbanization and service development on household consumption is still significantly positive. Moreover, urbanization has a stronger effect on the improvement of household consumption rate. Transnational experience also shows that the higher the level of popularization of higher education in a country, the higher the consumer spending rate. Therefore, the “structural rewards” of urbanization and service industries for household consumption are greater than the “structural burden” effect. Under the background of “urbanization and backward development of service industries” in China, we should promote population consumption growth through population urbanization and relaxation of service regulation.