本文根据十一个县(区)尘肺的时间数列应用三点法预测尘肺的发展。结果全部年限预测误差的百分率均在±20%以下,其中有十三个年限预测误差的百分率在±5%以下,而且所有预测误差值(e_1)均在95%的置信区间预测控制线内。表明三点法在尘肺的预测中效果是好的。 This paper uses the three-point method to predict the development of pneumoconiosis based on the time series of pneumoconiosis in eleven counties (districts). Results The percentage of prediction errors for all years was less than ±20%. Among them, the percentage of 13 years of prediction error was less than ±5%, and all prediction errors (e_1) were within the 95% confidence interval prediction control line. It shows that the three-point method works well in the prediction of pneumoconiosis.