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目的利用已有的流感监测数据建立广东省流感监测预警体系,进行早期预警监测。方法采用2004~2006年14所哨点医院门诊每周就诊的流感样病例(ILI)占门诊病例总数百分比数据,使用控制图法、历史限法和指数加权移动平均法,对2007年的流感样病例就诊百分比(ILI%)数据进行拟合,分析早期预警的效果。结果控制图法显示,2007年流感疫情从第14周起进入流行季节,一直持续到第34周后流行结束;历史限法显示,2007年流感疫情较平稳,没有高于近年历史同期水平;指数加权移动平均法显示,2007年流感活动在第24周有明显的增加。结论2007年预警信号和实际流感疫情基本吻合,综合利用3种方法进行流感疫情早期预警,结果比较科学和可靠。
Objective To establish an influenza early warning system in Guangdong Province by using the existing influenza surveillance data and conduct early warning and monitoring. Methods A total of outpatient cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) from 14 outpatient clinics in 14 sentinel hospitals from 2004 to 2006 were collected. Using the control charts, historical limits and exponential weighted moving average method, The percentage of case visits (ILI%) was fitted and the effect of early warning was analyzed. Results The control charts showed that the flu epidemic entered the epidemic season from the 14th week of 2007 until the end of the 34th week of epidemic outbreak. The historical limit test showed that the flu epidemic was relatively stable in 2007 and not higher than that of the same period in recent years. The index The weighted moving average shows that there was a significant increase in flu activity in Week 24 in 2007. Conclusion The early warning signal in 2007 basically agrees with the actual flu epidemic, and the early warning of the flu outbreak is comprehensively made use of three methods. The result is more scientific and reliable.